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Predicting Replication in Academic Economics

$0raised
$7,000valuation

Project description

I want to replicate one full year of the American Economic Review, six months from 2022-2023, and six months from 2013, and test how robust the results are to changes in empirical specifications. We also will create a poll and prediction market to allow participants to gauge how many papers will replicate.

What is your track record on similar projects?

I'm the founder of Insight Prediction. I have published similar papers in top economics journals: https://sites.google.com/view/douglaslcampbell/home. Two collaborators have published a similar finding in Science: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aaf0918. Another collaborator has a paper on p-hacking and publication bias currently in a revise-and-resubmit status at a top 5 journal. https://lrlusher.weebly.com/uploads/1/0/0/4/10048967/publication_bias_draft_aer_submission.pdf

How will you spend your funding?

We will use the money to hire RAs, and as rewards for the poll & prediction market we set up.

🐷

Douglas Campbell

about 2 years ago

Great questions. Well, the coauthors on the project, myself included, are doing a lot of the work, and we're not going to take salaries. We have four research assistants from my institution currently doing various things, including some of the replicating. Also, we started this project in 2017, paid RAs to simply do the computational robustness (check data and code to make sure we could replicate) for about six months of the AER, and then got busy with other projects. We pay the institutional wage, which is pretty low these days with the dollar strong. Probably I could have been more ambitious, but, yes, $7,000 would in fact cover roughly our RA expenses and some rewards for prediction. Note some of our RAs may also get coauthorship if they do well, plus letters if need be.

We haven't yet decided 100% on what form the poll & prediction market would take. However, my coauthors still have access to what they used for their Science article which we could alter, and, of course, I also run a prediction market (Insight -- we'd have to make some changes, and not sure it would be wise to use it for this project).

Domenic avatar

Domenic Denicola

about 2 years ago

Is $7k really enough to replicate an entire year-journal's worth of economics papers? (Or I guess less than $7k, since you are planning to spend some of it as rewards?)

When you say "create a prediction market", are you intending to create a new platform or use an existing one? If an existing one, which one?